Gold market analysis

Gold Prices Expected to Remain in Narrow Range in the Short Term  
September 21, 2026, 11:15 AM  

Regarding the Middle East situation, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, keeping New York crude oil prices elevated, though they dipped slightly below $100 this morning. Iran continues to use maritime transit rights as its most potent bargaining tool, while countries such as Qatar and Oman are playing a mediating role by conveying dialogue terms and establishing indirect communication channels between the U.S. and Iran. Although Iran is willing to resume negotiations, it maintains a firm stance with seven core demands: the United States must completely cease all military strikes and hostile actions against Iran; unfreeze Iranian overseas assets seized or frozen by the U.S. and lift economic sanctions; end the maritime blockade in the region; require future talks to be based on the earlier memorandum of understanding, rejecting starting anew from scratch.

From the U.S. perspective, ongoing conflict exerts significant political pressure on global energy markets and domestic stability. However, fully accepting Iran’s conditions would likely be seen by domestic public opinion and political opponents as a strategic defeat. Therefore, the U.S. is maintaining military deterrence, attempting to force Iran into more concrete concessions regarding its nuclear program, ballistic missile technology, and regional proxy policies. With less than two months remaining before the U.S. midterm elections, Iran is unlikely to make any concessions, and the U.S., constrained by political considerations, will not accept Iran’s demands either. Nevertheless, large-scale attacks against Iran are expected to be avoided prior to the election.

Regarding gold prices, after the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike last week, gold initially dropped sharply but then recovered steadily. On Friday, it twice approached the psychological level of $4,400 without breaking through. The hourly chart has now formed a double-top pattern, making it highly likely that prices will fall below the neckline at approximately $4,343, targeting a potential decline to around $4,286. On the daily chart, gold is currently approaching the 20-day SMA (currently around $4,407), but resistance at $4,400 is clearly evident. Thus, prices are expected to gradually test lower levels in the short term, temporarily consolidating between the 20-day and 50-day SMAs (currently around $4,296). The recommended strategy is primarily selling on strength.

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.