Gold market analysis

Gold Price Forms a Large Double Bottom, Testing Higher Levels Again  
June 15, 2026, 10:56 AM  

Foreign media reported that yesterday Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz announced the United States and Iran have declared an end to hostilities. The two sides are expected to hold an official signing ceremony in Switzerland this Friday, followed by more detailed negotiations on nuclear issues. Trump stated he has lifted U.S. sanctions against Iran, and expects Iran will also open the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gholamreza Karbasi said the final memorandum of understanding with Islamabad has been finalized and will be signed in Switzerland this Friday. 

In the 14-point memorandum of understanding released by Iran's Mehr News Agency regarding Iran and the United States, I believe three points are particularly noteworthy: first, suspending sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemicals, and related products, and allowing Iran full access to its financial resources; second, the necessity for the U.S. and its allies to provide Iran with a reconstruction plan worth at least $300 billion; and third, reaffirming Iran's commitment under the Non-Proliferation Treaty not to develop nuclear weapons. I believe that as long as Iran commits not to pursue nuclear weapons, Western countries including the United States would certainly be willing to provide reconstruction funding. 

The script is unfolding largely as expected, with the U.S. and Iran on the verge of ending all hostilities, allowing financial markets to return to normal. After Asian markets opened today, international oil prices plunged sharply, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping near $80 and Brent crude falling as low as $83. Gold prices surged strongly with a gap up. On the hourly chart, spot gold opened higher with a gap and broke above the narrowing triangle top formed last Friday, piercing through two key Gann square resistance levels at $4,210 and $4,310. 

On the daily chart, gold has now approached the 38.2% retracement level of the largest decline since April 17 at $4,354.42, with the 50% retracement target at $4,456.63. Therefore, it is expected that the strong resistance at the 270-degree vertical angle around $4,410 will be breached. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is set to release its interest rate decision on Thursday morning, and a rate hold is anticipated, which could provide further momentum for gold prices to rise. Technically, gold has formed a large double bottom on the daily chart, with $4,890 as the key resistance level. Hence, the price is likely to continue moving upward toward this target. Meanwhile, $4,210 is expected to serve as a medium-term support level during any pullback. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.