Gold market analysis

"Gold Price at Bottom of Downward Channel, Likely to Rebound" 8/6/2026 10:48 Completed  
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported a significant increase in nonfarm payrolls for May, rising by 172,000—well above the expected 85,000. The April employment figure was also sharply revised upward from an initial reading of 115,000 to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% for the third consecutive month, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding April's 0.2%, and increased 3.4% year-on-year, down from April's 3.6%. Both figures aligned with market expectations. The data reignited market speculation about further Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. Interest rate futures indicate that markets now expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at its June 17 meeting, but the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December has risen to 46.7%. 

Strong employment data boosted the U.S. dollar across the board, pushing the DXY index above the resistance zone at around 99.5 and back above the 100 level, weighing on major non-U.S. currencies. Following Friday's data release, the euro fell sharply over 130 pips to 1.1508 before stabilizing; the British pound dropped more than 150 pips to 1.3317 before recovering; and the U.S. dollar rose above the 160 level against the yen. However, due to concerns over intervention, the pair struggled to advance beyond 160.30 and currently hovers around 160.35 this morning. 

Rising expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes weighed on gold prices, causing the spot price to sharply decline from a high of $4,475.7 before data release and break below the Gann square's 270-degree vertical angle at $4,410. The downward trend continued, with prices falling further to $4,311 by the end of the New York session. This morning, gold briefly dipped to $4,300 before rebounding to around $4,310. Technically, $4,410 has shifted from a strong support level to a strong resistance, while $4,310, located at the 225-degree angle, is likely to serve as short-term support. On the daily chart, gold is currently testing slightly above the lower boundary of a balanced descending channel, and today is expected to mark a continuation of the short-term low. There is significant risk in chasing further declines, so gold is likely to remain within a narrow range between $4,300 and $4,410 in the near term. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.