Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Constrained by 50-Day Moving Average May Resume Downward Trend" 15/4/2026 10:56 Completed 

After the US military adopted the "anti-blockade" strategy, Trump, in an interview with Fox News, claimed that the war with Iran was coming to an end and that the two sides might resume negotiations within the next two days. In fact, since the US announced that it would blockade all Iranian ports and then entered the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, and Iran did not carry out the "severe strikes" on military vessels entering the Strait of Hormuz as it had threatened, the outcome was clear and the war between the US and Iran was effectively over! 

Crude oil and gold prices maintain an inverse relationship. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has continued to decline, hitting a low of $90.46 in the early Asian market today. Brent crude oil also dropped to $94.43. It is almost certain that WTI crude oil will eventually return to its original form and fall below $70. As for gold, the spot gold price rose to $4,871.51 in the early morning today, but then dropped sharply. It is likely to form a double top with the high of $4,856 on April 8. Even if the gold price rises further in the next two days, it is expected to peak and fall on Friday. On the contrary, if the gold price fails to break through today's high in the next two days, the downward trend is expected to continue until the beginning of next week. 

From the daily chart, the gold price is approaching the medium and long-term resistance level of the 50SMA (currently around 4895) further. It is clear that the gold price is no longer in the major bull market of the past year. Since peaking at $5595.46 in January this year, the trend has shown a pattern of each wave being lower than the previous one or approaching a large downward channel. In other words, there is a possibility that the gold price could fall below the March 23 low of $4098.87. Based on the difference between the previous two lows, the gold price may fall to $3792 before a significant rebound. In other words, the gold price is likely to be in a major turning point (downward). The first important support level in the short term is $4660. If this level is breached, it will head towards $4410. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.