Gold market analysis

Gold prices have been slowly rising, but after reaching a high of $4,552.45 in early trading in Tokyo yesterday, they failed to set a new intraday high in Europe and New York City. The trend has been consolidating with a gradual downward movement, similar to the trend that began in New York City on Monday. If the current pattern continues, the low adjustment level seen at the end of yesterday's trading in New York City should not be breached, and there is a greater chance that gold prices will challenge the Gann horizontal angle of $4,660 intraday.
Regarding market news, the "Xi-Trump meeting" has been scheduled for May 14-15. However, it remains to be seen whether the United States will launch a large-scale military operation against Iran before then, or whether it will take action only during the visit to China. Logically, Trump should avoid escalating the military conflict between the United States and Iran before then. Additionally, the European Union and some non-EU American allies, such as Japan and South Korea, have agreed to jointly maintain the safety of the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz (possibly reaching some level of agreement with Iran to avoid attacks). The United States can temporarily step back from the front line, but as pointed out yesterday, is this a delaying tactic by the United States? Therefore, before Easter, the related risks still exist.
The gradual increase in gold prices reflects the market's caution. Currently, gold prices are still constrained by the rebound level of 38.2% (4603.7), which is the largest decline since March 2nd. If gold prices fail to break through this level in the short term, or encounter significant selling pressure near $4,600, or form a double top near this level, further downward testing to $4,400 should be guarded against. However, if gold prices retest the maximum increase of 50% since this week, near $4,350.89, in the next two days, it can be considered a buying opportunity. For further upward movement in the future, $4,660 is an important hurdle that must be breached.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.