Gold market analysis

"Gold Price's 50-Day Moving Average Becomes Resistance for Bounce" 19/3/2026 10:42 Finalized 

Yesterday, after its interest rate meeting, the US Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, in line with expectations. The post-meeting statement indicated that the US economic activity continued to expand steadily, but job growth was low, the unemployment rate had seen minor fluctuations recently, and inflation remained somewhat high. The statement also noted that the development of the situation in the Middle East posed uncertainties for the US economy, and the authorities would pay attention to its two-way risks. 

In the press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Powell said that since September to December last year, the interest rate has been cut by 75 basis points in total, bringing the policy rate back to a possible neutral range. The economy as a whole has been expanding at a steady pace, with consumer spending remaining resilient and business fixed capital investment continuing to grow. According to the latest forecast, the median growth rate of real GDP this year is about 2.4%, and about 2.3% next year, slightly higher than the 2.3% and 2% predicted in December last year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4% this year, and PCE inflation is expected to reach 2.7%, higher than the 2.4% predicted in December. 

Powell also pointed out that the impact of the situation in the Middle East on the US economy is uncertain. The recent rise in energy prices will push up overall inflation in the short term, but the extent and duration of the impact remain to be seen. The Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the risks to its dual mandate (employment and prices) and will decide whether to further adjust policy based on data, outlook and risk balance. In other words, the current monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve is to consider whether to further cut interest rates or maintain them unchanged, which is what I emphasized is by no means considering raising interest rates. 

After hovering around the $5,000 level for several consecutive days, the spot gold price eventually broke below the 50-day SMA (currently around $4,981), hitting a low of $4,806.8 yesterday (with $4,810 located at the Gann 45-degree angle). Note that, measured by the Fibonacci extension line from the movement since March 2nd, yesterday's sharp decline fulfilled the 100% extension decline ($4,815.64). Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will launch a short-term rebound wave, but with the 50-day SMA as the resistance for the rebound, the gold price must hold above this line to have a chance to further test the high. If calculated based on the movement since January 29th, the 100% extension decline would bring the gold price down to $4,227.91. Therefore, if the gold price fails to recover the 50-day SMA in a timely manner, the possibility of testing the $4,200 level will increase. 

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.